Palpable Progress
Analysing the latest data & trends — things are looking up!
As our industry continues to recuperate from the devastating effects of the pandemic, we bring you a comprehensive update on the progress. From an increase in employment and the number of operators who were able to pay rent in April, to the mobilisation of the Restaurant Revitalisation Fund — the business environment for eateries seems to be firmly on the road to recovery.
According to the latest weekly data provided by restaurant tracking service Black Box Intelligence, the industry posted positive two-year same-store sales for the third straight week. While the volume of orders remains lower due to the fact that customers remain favourably disposed to group orders, these figures are the highest they have been since the onset of Covid-19.
A report by the National Restaurant Association provided a fairly optimistic outlook in regard to the rate of re-employment and hiring in our sector as well.
Restaurants continued to restore some of the jobs lost during the pandemic in March, but the road to recovery remains long. Eating and drinking places* added a net 175,800 jobs in March on a seasonally-adjusted basis, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
March represented the third consecutive monthly employment increase, and lifted restaurant staffing levels to their highest point during the pandemic.
The following excerpt from Restaurant Business expounds the findings of Rabobank, a financial services company, that indicates a steady uptake in sales in direct correlation to the roll-out of stimulus cheques.
A report earlier this month by the financial services company Rabobank found that the stimulus could lift restaurant sales by 20% to 30%. That would exceed the previous two rounds of stimulus, both of which raised restaurant sales once they started to hit consumers’ bank accounts.
Rabobank suggested this round of stimulus would have a greater impact because there were larger direct payments, the economy is improving and more restaurants are available, especially when compared with this time last year.
“We believe that the third round of stimulus could provide an even bigger, and perhaps a more uniformly distributed, sales benefit to restaurants over the next several weeks, likely building a bridge to a more comprehensive sales recovery as COVID vaccinations speed up,” Rabobank wrote.
— Excerpt from Restaurant Business’ Restaurant Sales Continue to Surge
Finally, small business network Alignable conducted a monthly poll that indicated operators are increasingly able to pay rent, with 35% who wouldn’t pay rent in April versus the 63% unable to meet lease terms in March.
While all of the above information paints a cheerful picture, there’s still a long way to go.
While sales may have been up 20% over levels from 2019 in the week ended April 4, they were down from a 24% increase two weeks earlier. At full-service restaurants as well — sales were up 16% over 2019 levels, down from up 21% in the two weeks prior.
The Association also stated that “Although staffing levels rebounded from pandemic lows in each of the major restaurant segments, overall employment remains well below pre-coronavirus readings across the board.”
So, while we must take heart from the progress so far (God knows we now cherish and revel in all good news!), we must also remain pragmatic. The path to full recovery is precipitous, but the past year has revealed this industry’s unbreakable spirit. A sense of community, a joint purpose and clear objectives will form the bedrock of our endeavour going forward — and we have complete faith in the restaurant business and its institutions to implement these tenets and emerge with success.
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